Evaluating the impacts of climate change and land-use change on future droughts in northeast Thailand.

The impacts of climate change (CC) on droughts are well documented, but the effects of land-use change (LUC) are poorly understood. This study compares the projected individual and combined impacts of these stressors on future droughts (2021-2050), with respect to baseline (1981-2010) in one of the major tributaries of the Mekong River. LUC impacts on hydrological droughts are minimal compared to CC, with the latter expected to shorten the recurrence interval of a 20-year return period event to every 14 years. Both CC and LUC have significant impacts on agricultural droughts with heightened sensitivity. 'Once in a Decade' agricultural droughts will be 40% (35%) longer and 88% (87%) more severe under the CC (LUC) scenario. Under both stressors, the events occurring every 20 years will be twice as frequent. Results highlight the intensification of future droughts and the urgency for actions to mitigate/adapt to climate change and manage land use. Future policy shall holistically address agricultural water management, sustainable land use management, and crop management to cope with future droughts. We recommend developing resilient agricultural practices, enhanced water resource management strategies, and incorporating drought risk into land-use planning to mitigate the compounded impacts of CC and LUC.

Implementation of two-phase modeling of hydrogen sulfide in fresh market's combined sewers in Rat Burana, Bangkok.

Hydrogen sulfide (H2S) is one of the sewer gases commonly found in wastewater collection systems. This anaerobic degradation product causes issues, ranging from odor nuisances and health hazards to pipe corrosion. Several studies have provided an understanding of H2S formation mechanism, including simulations of H2S emissions in sewers, especially in pressurized systems. However, the present models necessitate a large amount of data due to the complexity of the H2S processes and common routine-monitoring water quality parameters may not fit the requirements. This study aims to simulate the fate and transport of H2S in both air and water phases in combined sewers, with a realization of practicableness of the application. The study case is centered around a fresh market in Bangkok, where the sewers are commonly plagued with garbage-related issues. These challenges pose difficulties for site monitoring across various aspects, necessitating the application of unconventional methods. On-site hydrodynamics, wastewater quality, and H2S gas concentration data were monitored on hourly and daily bases. It was found that the sulfides in the combined sewerage were correlated with sewage quality, e.g., COD, sulfate (SO42-), and pH concentrations in particular. The model results were in an acceptable range of accuracy (R2 = 0.63; NSE = 0.52; RMSE = 1.18) after being calibrated with the measured hydrogen sulfide gas concentration. The results lead to the conclusion that the simplified model is practical and remains effective even in sewers with untraditional conditions. This could hold promise as a fundamental tool in shaping effective H2S mitigation strategies.

Analysis of environmental factors influencing endemic cholera risks in sub-Saharan Africa.

The recurring cholera outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa are of growing concern, especially considering the potential acceleration in the global trend of larger and more lethal cholera outbreaks due to the impacts of climate change. However, there is a scarcity of evidence-based research addressing the environmental and infrastructure factors that sustain cholera recurrence in Africa. This study adopts a statistical approach to investigate over two decades of endemic cholera outbreaks and their relationship with five environmental factors: water provision, sanitation provision, raising temperatures, increased rainfall and GDP. The analysis covers thirteen of the forty-two countries in the mainland sub-Saharan region, collectively representing one-third of the region's territory and half of its population. This breadth enables the findings to be generalised at a regional level. Results from all analyses consistently associate water provision with cholera reduction. The stratified model links increased water provision with a reduction in cholera risk that ranged from 4.2 % to 84.1 % among eight countries (out of 13 countries) as well as a reduction of such risk that ranged from 9.8 % to 68.9 % when there is increased sanitation provision, which was observed in nine countries (out of 13). These results indicate that the population's limited access to water and sanitation, as well as the rise in temperatures, are critical infrastructure and environmental factors contributing to endemic cholera and the heightened risk of outbreaks across the sub-Saharan region. Therefore, these are key areas for targeted interventions and cross-border collaboration to enhance resilience to outbreaks and lead to the end of endemic cholera in the region. However, it is important to interpret the results of this study with caution; hence, further investigation is recommended to conduct a more detailed analysis of the impact of infrastructure and environmental factors on reducing cholera risk.

A review of limitations and potentials of desalination as a sustainable source of water.

For centuries, desalination, in one way or another, has helped alleviate water scarcity. Over time, desalination has gone through an evolutionary process influenced largely by available contemporary technology. This improvement, for the most part, was reflected in the energy efficiency and, in turn, in terms of the cost-effectiveness of this practice. Thanks to such advancements, by the 1960s, the desalination industry experienced notable exponential growth, becoming a formidable option to supplement conventional water resources with a reliable non-conventional resource. That said, often, there are pressing associated issues, most notably environmental, socioeconomic, health, and relatively recently, agronomic concerns. Such reservations raise the question of whether desalination is indeed a sustainable solution to current water supply problems. This is exceptionally important to understand in light of the looming water and food crises. This paper, thus, tends to review these potential issues from the sustainability perspective. It is concluded that the aforementioned issues are indeed major concerns, but they can be mitigated by actions that consider the local context. These may be either prophylactic, proactive measures that require careful planning to tailor the situation to best fit a given region or reactive measures such as incorporating pre- (e.g., removing particles, debris, microorganisms, suspended solids, and silt from the intake water prior to the desalination process) and post-treatments (e.g., reintroducing calcium and magnesium ions to water to enhance its quality for irrigation purposes) to target specific shortcomings of desalination.

Using multi criteria decision analysis in a geographical information system framework to assess drought risk.

In this study we use the Mun river basin to demonstrate how a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis - Geographical Information Systems (MCDA-GIS) methodology can be used to assess drought risk. This paper not only provides a step forward in considering other elements such as land use change, climate within drought risk but also splits annual risk across three seasons (wet, cool and hot), previously not done. We also investigate how land use change, in the form of a/reforestation and changing crop varieties could potentially mitigate future risk. MCDA rankings from experts found that climatic factors such as rainfall, evapotranspiration and maximum temperature were the most significant. By splitting up the seasons we have been able to observe the temporal and spatial changes in drought risk at an increased detail, an important step in mitigating water security issue in the future. Results for cool months found an increased risk in the north and east (Surin, Si Sa Ket and Rio Et). With hot months finding increased risk in the east (Surin and Si Sa Ket especially) and west in Nakon Ratchasima. Whereas the wet season risk was greatest in the West (Nakon Ratchima, Khon Kean and Mara Sarakham). Differences in future land use scenarios compared to 2017 found that if current trends continued (BAU), the areas at risk from drought will increase. However, by changing land use in the form of a/reforestation (COB) or changing crop types (PRO), drought risk will decrease. Thus, the MCDA-GIS methodology serves as a great starting point, providing a high flexibility in data, meaning the methodology can readily applied to other case studies across the world.

Analysis of potential nature-based solutions for the Mun River Basin, Thailand.

Despite the growth in research and applications of nature-based solutions (NBS) within the literature, there are limited applications in South East Asia, moreover studies which quantitatively assess the impacts of NBS could have on hazard reduction are scarce. This paper addresses this gap by developing and validating MCDA-GIS analysis to map how potential nature strategies could mitigate flood hazard if applied within the Mun River Basin, Thailand. Through a literature review, the top three solutions for flood and drought hazards were found: wetlands, re/afforestation, and changing crop types. These strategies were reviewed and validated with a MCDA-GIS methodology, through land use change (LUC) maps to depict different future scenarios. The results found that flood hazard did decrease when NBS were implemented in the catchment, especially for A/Reforestation, and to a greater extent when a combination of NBS were applied. This article provides specific insights into the current gaps of NBS publications, specifically considering the case of the Mun River Basin, Thailand.

Understanding the NEEDS for ACTING: An integrated framework for applying nature-based solutions in Brazil.

Nature-based solutions (NBS) support the provision of multiple benefits for the environment and society. First idealised in 2008, NBS are recommended by worldwide reports and guidelines as strategies to protect, sustainably manage and restore ecosystems. However, their operationalisation is still in the early stages, especially in developing countries, and only a few studies consider their full potential. This article contributes to this context by developing an integrated framework, with spatial and participatory tools, for analysing flood risk mitigation in Brazil. The approach enables a deep understanding of the societal challenges and vulnerabilities of the area (i.e., NEEDS) for subsequently planning the appropriate NBS (i.e., ACTIONS), with the participation of 255 stakeholders of Campina Grande municipality. Results show mappings of flood-prone areas, in which approximately 52% of the flooded areas will see an increase in the future. Hotspots (i.e., hazard, vulnerability, and exposure) are shown and discussed with four application cases. Finally, multiple benefits of seven NBS alternatives are analysed in 53 scenarios of application, in which the higher rates of reductions are found to combined alternatives. The discussion emphasizes the importance of spatially assessing the 'needs' and 'multiple benefits' of NBS, including reducing vulnerabilities and increment of resilience.

Cellular automata predictive model for man-made environment growth in a Brazilian semi-arid watershed.

The current study implements a cellular automata-based model for the development of land use/land cover (LULC) future scenarios using a Remote Sensing (RS) Imagery series (1985 to 2018) as data input and focusing on human activities drivers in a 6700-km2 watershed vital for the water security of Paraiba state, Brazil. The methodology has three stages: the first stage is the pre-processing of images and preparing them as data input for the cellular automata land use model built in the R software environment (SIMLANDER); the stage of calibration establishes the variables and verifies the influence of each one on the LULC of the region; the last step corresponds to the validation procedures. After model calibration, land use maps for future scenarios (2019 to 2045) were simulated. The results estimate a reduction of 737 km2 of natural land cover between the years 2019 and 2045. The spatial distribution of anthropogenic interference predicted a more significant degradation in the central region of the basin. This fact can be potentially attributed by the water availability increasing from the São Francisco River diversion. It is possible to identify an ascending trend of anthropogenic actions in the semi-arid region, which host the exclusively Brazilian biome-Caatinga-and contains biodiversity that cannot be found anywhere else on the Earth. The model helps large-scale LULC modelling based on RS products and expands the possibilities of hydrological, urban and social modelling in the Brazilian context.

A practical method to assess risks from large wood debris accumulations at bridge piers.

Accumulations of large woody debris can worsen scour at a bridge pier and thereby lead to structural damage. Accumulations can also increase the flood risk in adjacent areas. These consequences can cause disruption to local communities and even pose a risk to human life. Current methodologies acknowledge the existence of these effects of debris but do not provide a practical method, usable by engineers and practitioners, to assess the potential for debris accumulation at a bridge structure based on readily available data. This work aims to address this practical need by proposing a methodology based on direct and indirect observations. Using this methodology, a desk-based analysis can be performed to assess whether a bridge is prone to the formation of debris accumulations. Direct observations may include information from inspection reports, satellite imagery and tree removal works, while indirect observations may use information related to the geographical location of the bridge such as on other structures that share the watercourse or the presence of forested areas in its proximity. This methodology has been applied to local authority-owned bridges in Devon, UK. Results show that a large number of the structures (100 out of over 3000 bridges) are liable to debris accumulations. Direct observations served as primary evidence for over 80% of the bridges liable to debris accumulations. For many cases, direct observations existed to corroborate indirect observations suggesting that indirect observations can also be relied upon. The proposed methodology has also been applied to the prioritisation of bridge inspections for scour assessment. Results showed that many of the bridges prone to debris accumulations would need to be prioritised for scour inspections over other bridges in the aftermath of floods due to their significantly higher risk to scour in the presence of debris.

Assessing the knock-on effects of flooding on road transportation.

Flooding can affect every aspect of our lives and road transportation is not an exception. However, the interaction between floods and transportation was not investigated closely in the past. As transportation is the lifeline of any economy, it is essential to analyse potential dangers and threads that can lead to network capacity restraints. Considering the potential of flooding to affect large areas for long durations, disruptions to transportation can result in extensive knock-on effects. To examine how flooding can impact road transportation a novel methodology was developed into a software tool which integrates flood and traffic models. The flood is simulated with InfoWorks flood model and the traffic is represented by a detailed microscopic model (SUMO), which simulates individual vehicles and their interactions. Comparing normal (dry) traffic scenario with a flooded one yields the impacts of flooding on traffic (travelled distance and time, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, maps of speed changes on the roads). The results indicated that delays persist long after the perturbations of flooding have subsided and that durations of trip delays are extremely long in some cases whereas distance impacts are typically negligible. Major knock-on effects on the system indicated that even not flooded critical infrastructure should be considered in flood analysis, as their services may be indirectly impacted by the flood conditions. Although substantial, the impacts proved challenging to monetise as time delays are spread around many drivers and some trips (such as delay to a doctor's trip to the hospital) can have significant, but intangible consequences.

Experimental and numerical investigation of interactions between above and below ground drainage systems.

This paper presents the results of the experimental and numerical investigation of interactions between surface flood flow in urban areas and the flow in below ground drainage systems (sewer pipes and manholes). An experimental rig has been set up at the Water Engineering Laboratory at the University of Sheffield. It consists of a full scale gully structure with inlet grating, which connects the 8 m(2) surface area with the pipe underneath that can function as an outfall and is also further connected to a tank so that it can come under surcharging conditions and cause outflow from the gully. A three-dimensional CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) model has been set up to investigate the hydraulic performance of this type of gully inlet during the interactions between surface flood flow and surcharged pipe flow. Preliminary results show that the numerical model can replicate various complex 3D flow features observed in laboratory conditions. This agreement is overall better in the case of water entering the gully than for the outflow conditions. The influence of the surface transverse slope on flow characteristics has been demonstrated. It is shown that re-circulation zones can form downstream from the gully. The number and size of these zones is influenced by the transverse terrain slope.

Integration of research advances in modelling and monitoring in support of WFD river basin management planning in the context of climate change.

The integration of scientific knowledge about possible climate change impacts on water resources has a direct implication on the way water policies are being implemented and evolving. This is particularly true regarding various technical steps embedded into the EU Water Framework Directive river basin management planning, such as risk characterisation, monitoring, design and implementation of action programmes and evaluation of the "good status" objective achievements (in 2015). The need to incorporate climate change considerations into the implementation of EU water policy is currently discussed with a wide range of experts and stakeholders at EU level. Research trends are also on-going, striving to support policy developments and examining how scientific findings and recommendations could be best taken on board by policy-makers and water managers within the forthcoming years. This paper provides a snapshot of policy discussions about climate change in the context of the WFD river basin management planning and specific advancements of related EU-funded research projects. Perspectives for strengthening links among the scientific and policy-making communities in this area are also highlighted.